Category Archives: Complete Blog

Please note: None of the ideas expressed in this blog post are shared, supported, or endorsed in any manner by my employer.

Sick of armchair economists following me

Yesterday I experienced the tipping point in what has been a long process. I said fuggit to membership and my volunteer moderating duties on a site which was merely the latest to insult my knowledge, education and, via mocking people like me (who, as I will show, in fact had the CORRECT view) displayed just the latest example of what I will call “armchair economist syndrome” or AES.

For quite some time now I have been on the retreat from certain online forums and friendships due to AES. To be more specific, I’ve stopped pursuing friends and sites that persist in denying things that are even more “true” than “the Earth is not flat”. The “things” they persist in denying are economic and socio-political statements that are

  • NOT based in any “theory” (and remember, theories CAN be disproved with the right empirical data and so MIGHT INDEED be WRONG)
  • but which are based on what mathematicians call the “identity relationship”.

An identity relationship is not something that can be “wrong” or “denied” – it is “true by definition”. Now, whilst I remember an episode of QI discussing the guy who used a novel way to “prove” 1+1=2, epistemologically, addition etc is actually true by definition, for a given base. So in our usual base 10, 1+1 is identically equal to 2. If you can prove otherwise you are either in need of mental care or are a liar trying to troll someone.

One of my flaws is a dislike of theories that dominate much of modern discourse: gimme an identity relationship instead anyday – at least we know it is MUCH stronger! Identity relationships underlie accountancy (the balance sheet MUST balance) and some parts of economics (national income accounting). But this means good luck trying to prove me wrong! Basically this “flaw” of mine enables me to instantly detect bullshitters and anybody on the narcissist pathway – if they really wanna argue they’re right and I’m wrong then they’re at least one of those two!

Returning to the specific straw that broke the camel’s back yesterday, I’d kept away from certain topics in favour of “fun” ones like genre/science-fiction where I could escape these bruising encounters that have gone on for about 5 years now. Unfortunately a sci-fi show I am not involved with (but which has overlap with my former co-mods and site owner) precipitated a big argument over which of The Joker and Avengers Endgame made the largest profit. One of my co-moderators, and then the site owner IN A BROADCAST made extremely disparaging remarks about anyone (like me) who could possibly say “Endgame” (using the “absolute dollar amount” argument) rather than Joker (using profit as percentage of costs). Unfortunately they’re wrong. Dead wrong.

The Theory of the Firm is usually the first section of Microeconomics 101. Within the first few pages you learn that PROFIT = TOTAL REVENUE (EARNINGS) MINUS TOTAL COSTS. (Actually you should technically also subtract a second term but this is hard to measure and usually ignored.) Thus Endgame, assuming costs of around $700m made a cool $2Bn profit whilst Joker made (so far) around $900m profit. No contest. By definition in Economics and Accountancy Endgame was more profitable.

Yet ad hominem attacks abounded against anyone (like me) who argued this basic DEFINITION USED IN ECONOMICS AND ACCOUNTANCY. I received just about the best higher education in economics you can get (Cambridge University and I have a PhD). You think lecture 1 of their course has made a mistake?

You are either being exceptionally nasty or are doing, what is charitably called “MAKING STUFF UP”

It is perfectly fine (and indeed necessary for accountants, financiers etc who wanna know such things) to quote the desired percentage. But don’t call that “profit”, without a bunch of qualifiers. It is named various things across economics and accountancy but perhaps the most familiar term if you want to gaze across both disciplines is “Return On Investment – ROI” for the purposes of this area. But “profit per unit cost/input” or somesuch would at least make it clear. Don’t think you can just change definitions to suit yourself. At best you look a moron, at worst, if you’re in business, you’ll run into a huge misinterpretation with your accountants/financiers at some point and might find yourself in trouble with tax authorities.

This sounds trivial. It’s not. When you know you have a Cambridge Economist at your beck and call wouldn’t it have been trivial to double check this before broadcasting something that was both wrong and said in an insulting way? But it was just the latest in AES that I’ve been running into for years. I was insulted and belittled. Yet I’m the one over-reacting? When the site owner has previously berated intersectionalists for calling their professors “wrong”, yet then does exactly that to me I call that rank hypocrisy and it hurts. I gave lots of my spare time to help out and I get attacked and straw-manned – oh did I mention that? Apparently I also believe there was a year zero AD so that I could make 2000 the millennium. That’s just bloody pathetic and the argument of an 8 year old.

Show disrespect for your moderators? Don’t be surprised if we leave. Plus, when you’re involved in court cases alleging financial impropriety then congratulations! You just made half the internet think you’re financially illiterate – how do you think that’s gonna help your case?

 

brilliant youtuber

I recently discovered a brilliant YouTuber who goes by the name The Critical Drinker. He’s a no-nonsense hilarious Scottish guy who (mainly) reviews genre films under a persona that’s best described as “the stereotypical drunken Scot”. (He is clearly articulate and obviously no alcoholic).

If you are familiar with RedLetterMedia (Mr Plinkett) on YouTube and like reviews that are not only incredibly incisive, but with a funny “theme/schtick” then check him out. I don’t agree with him 100% of the time but most of the time he has me in stitches laughing.

His review of Star Trek Into Darkness is, in my view, one of the best take-downs of everything wrong with modern genre films from Hollywood. It largely comes down to the critique that Hollywood people can’t write, plot, or do anything that requires originality and critical faculties.

The only issue on which I might perhaps diverge a little concerns the issue of non-straight-white-male representation. Now, in case you think I’m one of those people who thinks men are being uniformly and unfairly criticised, blah blah blah, then please read my earlier posts. I’m not. I thought Captain Marvel was OK, good in places and I dislike the polarisation occurring regarding the representation of minority groups in Hollywood. I am part of a minority group – if a visual or written representation of it sucks I’ll be the first to say and I’ve seen a worrying erosion of free speech in academia when I was a professor.

I just feel that “Brie-Larson-bashing” is going after the wrong target. Someday soon I’ll write more when I get more thoughts in order….but the more general points about story-telling and the economics of film-making resonate with me.

In the meantime I’m going to tune in to The Critical Drinker’s YT session in a bit to see what transpires.

 

changes

Just a quick note about some possible changes afoot. As many know, I’m closing my business at the end of this week and leaving the field I have worked in since 2001.

I’m not at liberty to say much about what comes next, nor discuss other family stuff that have complicated things. I may, indeed, change much of my social media identities, depending upon what I do next – a fresh start might be best. Those who have kept in contact on email, or have engaged constructively with me on here publicly or via DM and other platforms will be given any new contact details.

It’ll be exciting to do something different. Ciao for now!

truce

Well things have gone better in last 24 hours. This is not to say “all the shites have apologised” – indeed my criticism was largely against a bunch of shites who I knew never read this and the persons who did would engage constructively with me (which they did).

However, I still must make clear some thoughts, for the record. These are largely for people who don’t engage with me (ironically) so the typical reader of this should not think “oh he’s getting at me”. I’m in all probability not.

First:

Don’t try to bamboozle me and shut me up with post-modernistic crap. Intersectionalism gets nowhere with me, Why? Because YOU HAVE NO FUCKING IDEA HOW TO FINANCE, SPREAD AND IMPLEMENT IT. Plus it’s a bag of shite.

Second:

Don’t give me “ah, OK, that’s interesting” line to a MMT argument. Then go on to spread EXACTLY the same shite next time about “not being able to afford stuff”. All it shows is that either:

(1) You didn’t read my stuff (in which case you’re a rude shite), or

(2) You didn’t understand my stuff (in which case you can’t add 2+2 in which case you are retarded). There. I said it. But it is literally true.

 

For those who think I’m rude, I didn’t start it. The “intersectionalists” on FB started it. The supporters of the LibDems on here continued it (supporting a bank manager who clearly doesn’t understand the basics of a balance sheet – and you wanted HIM to be PRIME MINISTER?!)

 

So no, I won’t listen to the Lib Dems. They are still “orange book” people from the 19th century. Change UK are obviously a joke. The Tories are (We hope) dying). Labour are, at least, allowing a MMT guy to talk to them. YES they’ve made a tonne of mistakes and I’m not going to stand up and proclaim they’re great. But they’re better than the other morons. And that is probably the best we can hope for in these sad times.

 

But we can improve things. Read Warren Mosler. Go make EVERYONE in your local constituency party read him. Then we might move forward. But if you tweet insulting crap that shows you can’t add 2+2 I reserve the right to delete you. In the same way that I don’t really want a gerbil as a follower.

not being harangued anymore

I find it funny that a “pro-EU” “friend” just said:

“nobody likes being harangued – they just switch off”

This was an argument made in all SERIOUSNESS by remainer who retweeted insulting pics from the big REMAIN march and who regularly retweeted insulting tweets about anybody who was a LEAVEr. You couldn’t make this shit up!

Well, first of all, I’m agnostic about the EU. I know a lot about the trading rules, about how they promote anti-environmental trade-routes across the planet. I also know that the local rules on things like air-travel etc are essential. But most of all I understand how #MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) has implications for “where we go next”.

But the idea that “nobody likes being harangued” from a person who REGULARLY HARANGUED PEOPLE ON TWITTER REALLY TOOK THE BISCUIT. I actually TALK to poor people in the centre of “BREXIT Central” aka Nottingham. They are fed up of people talking down to them. They hate the stupid memes. They automatically assume that if it is a joke on a major talk show against LEAVE it MUST be fake news and they must THEREFORE IGNORE IT. Can’t say I blame them. Nottm City has gone down the toilet in the 40 years since I was a kid.

Those who I went to school with and who presume to speak for these people are…well….liars. Try living here. Your “funny” facepics for the next march won’t help. If there is a 2nd referendum you’ll still lose.

Because you NEVER FUCKING UNDERSTOOD OR TRIED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT REALLY MATTERED TO PEOPLE. And no, I never thought the referendum was the right tool for the job…..but we are where we are.

Corporate goodbye

Just a quick note for those who haven’t been following my corporate account.

In short, I’m closing my company, effective immediately. The reasons are really too complicated to explain. *Some* reasons include:

  • Inability by some people to understand how to properly do comparisons across goods and services. A pig-headed insistence on using methods we know don’t work (*cough*Rotten Tomatoes*cough*) because “they’re short and easy”.
  • Lack of support from people who I trained but who, well, acted, shall we say “oddly”.
  • My increasing annoyance at working within a paradigm that is patently false – using a monetary “threshold” is wrong. Full stop. Go read Modern Monetary Theory. If you disagree, I can only conclude you either don’t understand the mathematical identity relationship (in which case I’m very concerned about how on earth you got to such a senior position) or you are deliberately misrepresenting the nature of real resources for political ends (in which case I am very concerned about your ethics).

Yeah I know this kind of views annoy some and “vindicate” some who think I don’t play politics. But there comes a point where you say “sod that for a game of soldiers”. Time to be honest. Because major national issues are being voted upon which rely on some honesty.

 

Life expectancy is falling due to governmental policy – some of this supported by “supposedly progressive forces”. Sorry, ain’t falling for that shite anymore. When I see my family, having worked its way up from nothing, having governmental policies of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats push them back down again, I get angry. Yeah I know the rates of cancer. But such clustering here? Hmmm. I read stories about issues that at least deserve the “need for proving safety” rather than presumption of safety and sue later philosophy.

 

In short, there are a lot of people who need to do a lot more reading.

Most-Least Voting Would have Killed Brexit

I’m looking at the results for England and Wales from the 2019 European Parliament election. Scotland and Northern Ireland are yet to declare (though we pretty much know the Scottish result already). The percentage votes are really rather remarkable if you are interested in Best-Worst Scaling, or the branch of it known as Most-Least Voting. I couldn’t have made up more interesting figures if I’d tried. Here are the percentages from the Guardian as at 09:55 BST on Monday 27/05/2019.

 

Brexit: 33.3%

Lib Dem: 20.9%

Labour: 14.6%

Green: 12.5%

Conservative: 8.8%

Change UK: 3.6%

Ukip: 3.5%

Plaid: 1.0%

 

Now, let’s do a little thought experiment. It is pretty subjective since we have no data on what party any individual liked *least*. But given the nature of this election, we can make some pretty informed guesses. And if we’d had Most-Least Voting, particularly if coupled with the most common constituency format across the EU (national), rather than regional, the pattern of MEPs elected would have been RADICALLY different.

 

Here are some interesting titbits to inform my counterfactual:

Extreme “Leave” support = 33.3%+3.5% = 36.8%

Extreme “Remain” support = 20.9%+12.5%+3.6% = 37.0%

Pretty similar, huh?

Under Most-Least Voting you get two votes: the party you like most (just as at present) but you must also declare the party you like least (for your ballot to be valid – else the mathematics doesn’t work). At the counting stage the total number of “least” votes is subtracted from the total “most” votes to give a “net approval rating”. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what would have happened in England and Wales, given these figures.

ASSUMING the Brexit + Ukip supporters had perfect foresight (snigger, bear with me), then they could have knocked out the three strong Remain parties. But those three parties would have knocked out Brexit + Ukip. IF the Brexit (being the big group) people didn’t concentrate their fire so perfectly they could have more easily knocked out one or two of the three Remain parties. BUT then the third would have got through easily.

So, what would we have likely ended up with? Most MEPs being ones who “didn’t articulate an EU policy very well” (if you want to be polite) or “who didn’t know the f*ck what they thought about the EU” (if you want to be less polite). In other words, most MEPs would have been Labour or Conservative (with Labour beating the Conservatives). They would have “come through the middle” of the debate.

Would this have been a “good” thing or a “bad” thing? I can’t answer that. Indeed if Arrow (“Nobel” prize-winner) couldn’t show the existence of a “fair” form of democracy then I bloody well can’t.

I will venture a thought, however. It is that such a hypothetical outcome would have shown what many of us who have done survey work already know: most people cannot possibly provide a properly informed view on EU membership – whether being instinctively “Remain” or “Leave”. The referendum had little to do with the EU (except for some racists and some greedy gits who used freedom of movement and capital to exploit people). Plots of the Index of Multiple Deprivation against Leave/Remain votes in Nottingham are almost a perfect straight line. If you felt left behind by 40 years of Westminster crappiness from both Tory and Labour governments then you tended to vote Leave. It’s really pretty simple.

Most-Least Voting would at least have nullified the issue that isn’t the real issue. The two main parties might – just might – have then been forced to start addressing the real issues going on across this country. Food for thought.

(NB I left out Plaid merely because their effect would have been marginal. If you want to include them in your own calculations feel free – it bumps up Remain vote a little).

EU supporters are just as stupid

This post will be antagonistic. But it will also be full of facts. So if you start arguing against the factual points I’ll block you without bothering to argue. Because much of it relies on what in mathematics is called the identity relationship – something that is true by definition. 2+2=4 in base 10. Try to argue otherwise and you are either (1) intellectually incompetent, or (2) a liar who is trying to discredit the piece for political reasons. I am deliberately steering well clear of “theories”. This is mostly accountancy.

 

First of all, I’ve been posting about “overly woke” people lately. Does this make me some kind of “traitor” to my (gay) minority? Of course not. It means I, like the great Tracey Ullman, recognises you pick your battles. And the biggest battle is providing an equitable (NOT EQUAL) society for everyone. There is a growing body of evidence showing that life expectancy is falling and child mortality is rising. Not (just) in places like Africa. The USA. The UK. Society is fracturing. It is time to concentrate on key issues that determine whether we as humans will survive. Arguing “micro-aggressions?” FFS prepare yourself for a long life of therapy as the traumas of the 21st century hit you daily. Or, to be more succinct, grow a pair.

 

OK that’s a bit subjective but here we get objective and the key issue concerns macroeconomics. If you have ever found yourself agreeing with ideas about “the government’s ability to spend”, a “governmental credit card”, or “the size of the national debt” then sorry. You’ve just illustrated you are a moron. You don’t understand the BASICS of how society works. You have NO FUCKING RIGHT TO LECTURE ME OR OTHERS ABOUT MINORITY RIGHTS, HOW TO ACHIEVE THEM OR ANYTHING ELSE. If you don’t understand the REAL constraints upon government then you are simply ill-educated or just deliberately spinning a neo-liberal lie. Either way I’m not listening to you. You are, literally, just as bad as a flat-earther. Someone who denies the facts. Go do accountancy 101 and learn the basic national income equations.

 

PEOPLE CANNOT SAVE UNLESS THE GOVERNMENT RUNS A DEFICIT. THIS IS AN IDENTITY RELATIONSHIP.

 

THE NATIONAL DEBT IS IDENTICALLY EQUAL TO THE ACCUMULATED SAVINGS OF THE NON-GOVERNMENTAL SECTOR OVER TIME. Wanna eliminate it? Good luck in your retirement. I shall laugh at you when a stock market fall means you get no pension one month, are evicted, and die on the sidewalk. You’ll be a great candidate for the Darwin Awards. You’ll also be doing the planet a favour.

 

Lots of people argue this shit. But one group particularly annoys me. Pro-EU people. Now, don’t get me wrong: I want European integration; I hate the BREXIT party; I LOATHE the UKIP party; I loathe the Conservative Party. However, I also understand the forces pulling the EU apart. They sadden me. But if you keep on LECTURING ME that I don’t understand why BREXIT is so awful, without using arguments based on the mathematical identities given above – part of “Modern Monetary Theory” which shouldn’t incidentally have been named a theory since it isn’t, it’s an identity relationship – then I will simply assume you are stupid, even if well-intentioned.

 

I will write more in due course. But here’s my take-away. If you are going to lecture me on the benefits of the EU:

  • What is the EU doing to reduce insane supply chains and just in time distribution models?
  • What is the EU doing to radically reduce its free trade area to encompass local areas that are carbon neutral and sustainable when the sea level rises many metres?
  • What is the EU doing to sort out fascists across member countries?

Granted, we are very very guilty of not solving these. However, stop lecturing us that the EU IS solving them. The problem is Europe-wide. The problem is a total failure to acknowledge the identity relationship in mathematics to allow investment in REAL resources – the skills of people, infrastructure immune to climate change, etc. Yeah the BREXITeers are fucking hypocrites. But YOU ARE TOO. Go read accountancy 101 and then come back and argue.

superhero movies

Been reading lists of “top tens” and suchlike. The ranking of the Superman films made me think and really, I mean really, realise why although I think Superman – The Movie is so spectacular (and on some days of the week would be placed at number one by me), the reason I have to place Superman II ahead of it (for all its flaws – largely related to the production fiascos about which you can google) is that despite the “super-kiss”, it doesn’t use a TOTAL DEUS EX MACHINA.

Superman I does with time travel. And I hate it when writers use that as a plot device to “undo a problem they got themselves into”. Of course the time travel thing was MEANT to be used in Superman II by Donner (which merely would have ruined S2 instead) – thus, although I retain huge respect for the man, and acknowledge he was treated badly when Warner Bros got cold feet about the “double movie deal” and made him use what he’d filmed (which was material from BOTH films) to make a coherent stand-alone first movie, I think the “Donner campaign” is misguided. Yes, the “Donner version of S2” has some sublime elements – it’s a crying shame that money meant that Superman regaining his powers was not done using the original filmed scene with Marlon Brando, and which is on google – it’s a tear-jerker) – but otherwise? I have to say that had the original plan been followed, Superman I would have been a great movie, but Superman II would have been ruined and “undone” everything from these first two movies, ready for a blank slate for future rehashes of plots/baddies etc. Which I really hate.

GLAD

I have signed up to the GLAD Study – the largest of its kind in mental health to try to understand associations between genes and depression/anxiety.

I am someone who professionally has been on the “other side of the fence” for decades – trying to recruit people, and the right type of people, to studies in attempts to help patients and further scientific knowledge. Thus I understand the need to sign up to studies, if one is eligible and I do so whenever appropriate.

I also have a very personal interest in the study – my mental health problems in recent years relating to anxiety and depression are no secret. I could probably write a patient’s guide on most antidepressants and types of talk therapy! I am in a relatively good place at the moment…..but I was only able to navigate the tortuous process of trying a multitude of treatments over a necessarily long period because I am self-employed and was always able to schedule my work in a manner that ensured I provided 100% in my work…..even though it often led to difficulties in the non-work arena.

Many people are not as fortunate – they have no flexibility in their life to undergo such tortuous “suck it and see” approaches to treatment. The GLAD study may ultimately make life easier for all of us – if we begin to understand what medications and other interventions are more or less likely to work in what patients, based on their genetic makeup, then much human misery may be avoided.

I have a purely personal desire, too, that some older treatments are rediscovered, along with the facts their side effect profiles are not half as bad as many young doctors have been taught!