Tag Archives: eu

not being harangued anymore

I find it funny that a “pro-EU” “friend” just said:

“nobody likes being harangued – they just switch off”

This was an argument made in all SERIOUSNESS by remainer who retweeted insulting pics from the big REMAIN march and who regularly retweeted insulting tweets about anybody who was a LEAVEr. You couldn’t make this shit up!

Well, first of all, I’m agnostic about the EU. I know a lot about the trading rules, about how they promote anti-environmental trade-routes across the planet. I also know that the local rules on things like air-travel etc are essential. But most of all I understand how #MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) has implications for “where we go next”.

But the idea that “nobody likes being harangued” from a person who REGULARLY HARANGUED PEOPLE ON TWITTER REALLY TOOK THE BISCUIT. I actually TALK to poor people in the centre of “BREXIT Central” aka Nottingham. They are fed up of people talking down to them. They hate the stupid memes. They automatically assume that if it is a joke on a major talk show against LEAVE it MUST be fake news and they must THEREFORE IGNORE IT. Can’t say I blame them. Nottm City has gone down the toilet in the 40 years since I was a kid.

Those who I went to school with and who presume to speak for these people are…well….liars. Try living here. Your “funny” facepics for the next march won’t help. If there is a 2nd referendum you’ll still lose.

Because you NEVER FUCKING UNDERSTOOD OR TRIED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT REALLY MATTERED TO PEOPLE. And no, I never thought the referendum was the right tool for the job…..but we are where we are.

Most-Least Voting Would have Killed Brexit

I’m looking at the results for England and Wales from the 2019 European Parliament election. Scotland and Northern Ireland are yet to declare (though we pretty much know the Scottish result already). The percentage votes are really rather remarkable if you are interested in Best-Worst Scaling, or the branch of it known as Most-Least Voting. I couldn’t have made up more interesting figures if I’d tried. Here are the percentages from the Guardian as at 09:55 BST on Monday 27/05/2019.

 

Brexit: 33.3%

Lib Dem: 20.9%

Labour: 14.6%

Green: 12.5%

Conservative: 8.8%

Change UK: 3.6%

Ukip: 3.5%

Plaid: 1.0%

 

Now, let’s do a little thought experiment. It is pretty subjective since we have no data on what party any individual liked *least*. But given the nature of this election, we can make some pretty informed guesses. And if we’d had Most-Least Voting, particularly if coupled with the most common constituency format across the EU (national), rather than regional, the pattern of MEPs elected would have been RADICALLY different.

 

Here are some interesting titbits to inform my counterfactual:

Extreme “Leave” support = 33.3%+3.5% = 36.8%

Extreme “Remain” support = 20.9%+12.5%+3.6% = 37.0%

Pretty similar, huh?

Under Most-Least Voting you get two votes: the party you like most (just as at present) but you must also declare the party you like least (for your ballot to be valid – else the mathematics doesn’t work). At the counting stage the total number of “least” votes is subtracted from the total “most” votes to give a “net approval rating”. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what would have happened in England and Wales, given these figures.

ASSUMING the Brexit + Ukip supporters had perfect foresight (snigger, bear with me), then they could have knocked out the three strong Remain parties. But those three parties would have knocked out Brexit + Ukip. IF the Brexit (being the big group) people didn’t concentrate their fire so perfectly they could have more easily knocked out one or two of the three Remain parties. BUT then the third would have got through easily.

So, what would we have likely ended up with? Most MEPs being ones who “didn’t articulate an EU policy very well” (if you want to be polite) or “who didn’t know the f*ck what they thought about the EU” (if you want to be less polite). In other words, most MEPs would have been Labour or Conservative (with Labour beating the Conservatives). They would have “come through the middle” of the debate.

Would this have been a “good” thing or a “bad” thing? I can’t answer that. Indeed if Arrow (“Nobel” prize-winner) couldn’t show the existence of a “fair” form of democracy then I bloody well can’t.

I will venture a thought, however. It is that such a hypothetical outcome would have shown what many of us who have done survey work already know: most people cannot possibly provide a properly informed view on EU membership – whether being instinctively “Remain” or “Leave”. The referendum had little to do with the EU (except for some racists and some greedy gits who used freedom of movement and capital to exploit people). Plots of the Index of Multiple Deprivation against Leave/Remain votes in Nottingham are almost a perfect straight line. If you felt left behind by 40 years of Westminster crappiness from both Tory and Labour governments then you tended to vote Leave. It’s really pretty simple.

Most-Least Voting would at least have nullified the issue that isn’t the real issue. The two main parties might – just might – have then been forced to start addressing the real issues going on across this country. Food for thought.

(NB I left out Plaid merely because their effect would have been marginal. If you want to include them in your own calculations feel free – it bumps up Remain vote a little).

EU supporters are just as stupid

This post will be antagonistic. But it will also be full of facts. So if you start arguing against the factual points I’ll block you without bothering to argue. Because much of it relies on what in mathematics is called the identity relationship – something that is true by definition. 2+2=4 in base 10. Try to argue otherwise and you are either (1) intellectually incompetent, or (2) a liar who is trying to discredit the piece for political reasons. I am deliberately steering well clear of “theories”. This is mostly accountancy.

 

First of all, I’ve been posting about “overly woke” people lately. Does this make me some kind of “traitor” to my (gay) minority? Of course not. It means I, like the great Tracey Ullman, recognises you pick your battles. And the biggest battle is providing an equitable (NOT EQUAL) society for everyone. There is a growing body of evidence showing that life expectancy is falling and child mortality is rising. Not (just) in places like Africa. The USA. The UK. Society is fracturing. It is time to concentrate on key issues that determine whether we as humans will survive. Arguing “micro-aggressions?” FFS prepare yourself for a long life of therapy as the traumas of the 21st century hit you daily. Or, to be more succinct, grow a pair.

 

OK that’s a bit subjective but here we get objective and the key issue concerns macroeconomics. If you have ever found yourself agreeing with ideas about “the government’s ability to spend”, a “governmental credit card”, or “the size of the national debt” then sorry. You’ve just illustrated you are a moron. You don’t understand the BASICS of how society works. You have NO FUCKING RIGHT TO LECTURE ME OR OTHERS ABOUT MINORITY RIGHTS, HOW TO ACHIEVE THEM OR ANYTHING ELSE. If you don’t understand the REAL constraints upon government then you are simply ill-educated or just deliberately spinning a neo-liberal lie. Either way I’m not listening to you. You are, literally, just as bad as a flat-earther. Someone who denies the facts. Go do accountancy 101 and learn the basic national income equations.

 

PEOPLE CANNOT SAVE UNLESS THE GOVERNMENT RUNS A DEFICIT. THIS IS AN IDENTITY RELATIONSHIP.

 

THE NATIONAL DEBT IS IDENTICALLY EQUAL TO THE ACCUMULATED SAVINGS OF THE NON-GOVERNMENTAL SECTOR OVER TIME. Wanna eliminate it? Good luck in your retirement. I shall laugh at you when a stock market fall means you get no pension one month, are evicted, and die on the sidewalk. You’ll be a great candidate for the Darwin Awards. You’ll also be doing the planet a favour.

 

Lots of people argue this shit. But one group particularly annoys me. Pro-EU people. Now, don’t get me wrong: I want European integration; I hate the BREXIT party; I LOATHE the UKIP party; I loathe the Conservative Party. However, I also understand the forces pulling the EU apart. They sadden me. But if you keep on LECTURING ME that I don’t understand why BREXIT is so awful, without using arguments based on the mathematical identities given above – part of “Modern Monetary Theory” which shouldn’t incidentally have been named a theory since it isn’t, it’s an identity relationship – then I will simply assume you are stupid, even if well-intentioned.

 

I will write more in due course. But here’s my take-away. If you are going to lecture me on the benefits of the EU:

  • What is the EU doing to reduce insane supply chains and just in time distribution models?
  • What is the EU doing to radically reduce its free trade area to encompass local areas that are carbon neutral and sustainable when the sea level rises many metres?
  • What is the EU doing to sort out fascists across member countries?

Granted, we are very very guilty of not solving these. However, stop lecturing us that the EU IS solving them. The problem is Europe-wide. The problem is a total failure to acknowledge the identity relationship in mathematics to allow investment in REAL resources – the skills of people, infrastructure immune to climate change, etc. Yeah the BREXITeers are fucking hypocrites. But YOU ARE TOO. Go read accountancy 101 and then come back and argue.

EU inequality

OK I’m breaking my self-imposed law within a few hours.

Ben says EU good

Ben says EU good

 

 

 

 

I usually have utmost respect for Ben Goldacre and don’t want to get into trolling territory on twitter but this is a simplistic statement. The first statement is true. The second is highly debatable if you stratify by age.

It is well known (see Bill Mitchell amongst a wealth of others, many of whom could not be seen as “outsiders” but are well within the mainstream) that unemployment in southern EU countries is appalling amongst the young. 50% or so. People with PhDs living at home with parents and, if they’re lucky, doing some barista work. All courtesy of the banking rules that force them to “live within their means – like a household”. All a nonsense paradigm of course if you understand how money is created and destroyed. But the results are in and have been in for many years now. There is, of course, a strong affinity with the EU, given the benefits of the past. However, recent ECB policy means the young can’t afford a home, and get bare-bones healthcare.

EU and BREXIT etc

I have refrained from commenting on the BREXIT issue. Largely because there has been a complete lack of rational debate and the vilest epithets have been thrown around by both sides.

But I think there enough clearer heads now to note a few things. First of all a declaration of conflict of interest. Most of my Dad’s family are from Lincolnshire, and Boston in particular, one of the biggest centres of euroscepticism generally and referendum “Leave” votes specifically.

I make no attempt to endorse the views of many of these people. I merely seek to understand. And the prevailing view is/was rage. Rage, that there was no investment to cope with the housing/NHS demands by the huge numbers of immigrants needed to provide middle class people with the fruit and veg they wanted on the cheap. My grandfather fought in WW2 alongside free Poles. He loved the Poles and taught his family to – they lived in Boston for decades. But when my uncle notes that my cousin can’t get a GP appointment for my niece without a 5-6 week wait, I do begin to understand the rage. They get on with and like their Polish and other Eastern European neighbours. They just ask “but why are we bearing the brunt of the demand for social services?”

Another issue is rapidly coming to the fore……for those who read the mainstream press rather than the bloggers who actually look at the finances of the Eurozone banks it is time you started paying attention. Italy has a problem. A very very serious problem. One that could blow up the Eurozone. Please go look at the interconnectedness of European banks. That bank regarded as the doyenne of financial rectitude, Deutsche Bank, is heavily interlinked with Italy.

The powers that be are getting afraid. Afraid that the Italians might, actually, end up leaving the Eurozone. When you have a “savings account” that actually turns out to be something that is closer to “shares in the bank and therefore eligible to be wiped out under the new banking rules” it would be unsurprising if it made you mad. We are getting closer to that point.

So whilst I do acknowledge that the BREXIT side had a lot of people voting that way for the “wrong reason”, can we acknowledge that a lot of pro-Europeans really don’t understand just how close to the precipice they are? I think a good dose of reality is required on both sides. I was heartened to see this today and made me finally write this post.